Study results: the impacts of customs tarrifs on local businesses

Montréal, February 25, 2025 – BCF Business Law, in partnership with Aviseo Conseil, has just released the results of a study on the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the Québec economy.

The study presents a statistical portrait of Québec exports to the U.S., identifies the most vulnerable sectors and makes four key recommendations. More than 130 members of the Québec business community attended the unveiling of the study in Montréal, presented by Mario Lefebvre, economist and partner at Aviseo. The event, hosted by Julie Doré, Managing Partner at BCF, also featured two high-level expert panels. The first, an economic panel, consisted of Hubert Bolduc, President of Investissement Québec International, Luc Sirois, Québec’s Chief Innovation Officer, and Janie Béïque, President and CEO of the Fonds de solidarité FTQ. The second was made up of legal experts, namely Dominique Babin, partner and business lawyer at BCF, Didier Culat, legal counsel in business law at BCF, and Jean-Marc Clément, international trade lawyer.

Turning Business Challenges into Opportunities

“Ensuring the growth of organizations means helping them understand and anticipate the risks so they can innovate and adapt to rapid changes in the market and its uncertainties while seizing new opportunities. This study was crucial to us. As Québec’s second-largest law firm, it’s our duty to play a key role for local organizations by staying in tune with their realities, and tariffs are a good example,” said host Julie Doré.

Nine Sectors Particularly Vulnerable to U.S. Tariffs 

The study conducted by Aviseo Conseil in partnership with BCF reveals how critical exports are to Québec’s economy, accounting for 32% of the GDP, nearly half of which is destined for the United States. The analysis identifies nine sectors that are particularly vulnerable to potential U.S. tariffs. These sectors employ some 100,000 people, and represent 2.3% of total employment in Québec and 4% of the province’s GDP. In particular, the aluminum industry stands out for its strong cross-border interdependence, while others, such as aerospace, wood and automotive, are also at risk.

In the face of these challenges, four recommendations can be implemented—some immediately

1. The study establishes export market diversification as a viable option and reveals the importance of identifying countries or groups of countries as potential importers of Québec products that are at risk. Other Canadian provinces are among these importers, suggesting that it may be time to look at interprovincial trade barriers. 

2. The study suggests reducing the tax burden on businesses and gradually aligning Québec’s corporate tax burden (currently at 6.6% of GDP) with the average for member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (4.3% of GDP). 

3. It also warns against a Canadian tariff aftershock, which could negatively impact Québec’s economy by raising the cost of inputs and production equipment imported from the U.S. 

4. Finally, the study suggests setting up a collaboration mechanism, such as holding a Québec–United States summit bringing together various public and parapublic institutions as well as entrepreneurs, business leaders, and academics to optimize support for Quebec businesses and transform the current period of economic instability into opportunities for growth and innovation. 

Study results are available here (the document will download automatically). 

Constructive Exchanges Rooted in the Reality of Local Businesses

The economic panel brought together high-level experts to discuss the impacts of the new U.S. tariffs and strategies for dealing with them. Panelists discussed the current business reaction, the coordination of government support programs, and the importance of continued innovation despite financial constraints. They stressed the need for Québec companies to diversify and innovate in these difficult economic times, while reflecting on the stance Québec society should adopt in the face of such challenges. 

The panel of lawyers explored the legal aspects of the possible introduction of tariffs. The experts discussed priority actions for assessing the impact on existing contractual relationships, tips for making the most of free trade agreements, and ways of accurately calculating the impact of new tariffs on operating costs. They also proposed innovative legal strategies designed to not only protect customers’ interests, but also create an unexpected competitive edge in this new trade context. 

 

Media Contact  

For additional information on the news release or to request an interview, please contact: 

Manon Goudreault  
Vice-President, Marketing and Customer Strategy 
514-791-5061 / manon.goudreault@bcf.ca