Prospera – Quebec Economic Barometer

The Barometer aims to emphasize the structural aspects of the economy, rather than its cyclical changes. The mission of the Barometer’s is for the results it produces to inform debates on the effectiveness of public policies within Quebec and Canada.

The Barometer’s mission is for its resulting outcomes to shed light on debates about the effectiveness of public policy in Quebec and Canada.

Developed by economist Francois Delorme, the methodology is based on 28 variables and verified by an expert committee, which includes economist Pierre Fortin.

The index indicates that Quebec’s economy improved by 32% from 1980 to 2021, whereas Canada’s as a whole improved by 26.9% and Ontario’s, by 25.3%. 

The variables that had the greatest positive impact on the Quebec Economic Barometer over the past 40 years are, in order: 

• GDP-to-working-age population ratio;
• Post-secondary graduation rate for the population as a whole;
• Fixed capital stock per capita.

These three variables account for nearly half of the increase of the overall index for Quebec.

The Barometer allows us to identify issues that Quebec will need to tackle in a few years, namely:

• Its aging population: policies will need to be put in place to retain workers in the labour market;
• Its ecological transition: the transition must be accelerated to avoid losing our advantage;
• The availability of capital: the objective is for Quebec businesses to be transferred within Quebec, rather than abroad.

On June 13, members of the business community gathered to attend the unveiling of the new Prospera, Quebec Economic Barometer.

Pierre Fortin, Jean-Pierre Aubry and David Dupuis are part of the team of economists who participated in the development of the Barometer. Alongside Francois Delorme, they shared some of the key findings put forward as well as the pillars to leverage.

This event was a unique opportunity to attend a panel discussion that brought together business leaders including Mr. Pierre Fitzgibbon, minister of Economy and Innovation of Quebec, Ms. Janie C. Béïque, president and chief executive officer at Fonds de solidarité FTQ, and Mr. Miville Tremblay, senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute and a CIRANO invited fellow, to discuss the concrete impacts of this new tool, as well as the challenges that businesses will have to face in an ever-changing world.

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